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Let me first say that I have not settled on this view--yet. Those with whom I have been discussing this on another board would say, though, that God exercises free grace at conception: He chooses the child, just as He chose the believing parents.
I am happy you have not settled on it—Good News, as IMHO, and a host of others, it is false theology and has far reaching implications of how one should raise their children if they really believed in presumptive regeneration. To their, "God exercises free grace at conception," I would say that God predestined ALL before the foundation of the world—Eph 1, and not at conception. All children are born with a fallen nature and must be born again. Grace is always given in the fullness of time (but, this is not necessarily at birth), if it is to be given at all. I find no Scripture telling me ALL children of believers are regenerated at birth, but I do have Scriptures stating they are dead in trespasses and sin (Rom 5).

I mentioned baptismal regeneration (BR), because of the statement, “Baptism promises regeneration.” This in effect borders on BR and does fully embrace PR (presumptive regeneration). I loved your illustration of Eli’s children—one I had not thought about. If one carries that illustration out to its logical end it fully discredits PR and BR.

I will be speaking to Sinclair Ferguson this week concerning these two issues, especially the PR view in light of the discussions we have had on it here. As Sinclair says, “You don’t get the benefits of the sacraments without belief….they operate in covenantal context.”

Reformed and Always Reforming,